Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
